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T-Birds Playoff Preview: Who Will They Play? What Seed Will They Be?

Apr 13, 2023

Despite a 4-3 loss in Allentown on Saturday, April 8, the Thunderbirds have locked up their second consecutive berth in the Calder Cup Playoffs thanks to the Islanders' 8-2 loss to the Penguins.

Unlike the 2021-22 season, though, Springfield will have to play the best-of-3 First Round play-in series. Hershey and Providence will be the top two seeds out of the Atlantic, though the division title is still on the line.

Only three points separate third place and sixth place in the Atlantic Division. 

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With such a close race, it is important to familiarize ourselves with the tiebreaking procedures in the event two or more teams finish the season with identical points totals. The tiebreaking procedure & priority is as follows:

Between two teams:
a) games won in regulation (excluding overtime/shootouts)
b) games won in regulation or overtime (excluding shootouts)
c) games won in any manner
d) points in season series between teams
e) goal differential
f) goals scored in season series between teams
g) intra-conference points percentage

Among three or more teams:
a) games won in regulation (excluding overtime/shootouts)
b) games won in regulation or overtime (excluding shootouts)
c) games won in any manner
d) points percentage in combined season series
e) goal differential
f) goal differential in combined season series
g) intra-conference points percentage

With that in mind, if the season ended today, as shown above, Lehigh Valley holds the tiebreaker over Springfield by virtue of having a higher number of regulation wins (27). 

How much do the T-Birds have to do to secure home-ice advantage (the 3- or 4-seed)?

Certainly, all four teams in the 3rd-through-6th positions are aiming to get home-ice advantage in a brief best-of-3 series. Springfield and Charlotte currently control their own destinies as it pertains to securing home-ice advantage. If the T-Birds and Checkers each won their remaining games, they each would finish with 86 points.

Should the regulation win (currently 26) and regulation/OT win (currently 33) tiebreakers still be deadlocked between Springfield and Charlotte, each team would end with 39 wins in any fashion. Therefore, a fourth tiebreaker would be used, and Springfield would hold that advantage for having a better head-to-head record against Charlotte during the regular season.

In that event, Springfield would be the 3-seed and Charlotte would secure the 4-seed.

With Lehigh Valley's maximum point total at 84, the T-Birds can ensure themselves no worse than 4th position by getting 5 standings points over their three games this weekend.

What are the T-Birds' possible first-round matchups and how does home-ice advantage work?

Depending on which of the three possible opponents (LV, CLT, and HFD) lines up to be Springfield's First Round foe, the distance between the teams will hold a determining factor in the format for home-ice advantage.

  • If Springfield faces Hartford:
    • The team with the higher regular-season point total (or holds the tiebreaker) receives home-ice advantage
    • The team w/ home-ice advantage would host Game 1 and (if necessary) Game 3, with the opponent hosting Game 2
    • Example: If SPR holds home ice in a series against HFD, the breakdown would be:
      • Game 1 @ SPR
      • Game 2 @ HFD
      • Game 3 (if necessary) @ SPR
  • If Springfield faces Lehigh Valley:
    • The team with the higher regular-season point total (or holds the tiebreaker) receives home-ice advantage
    • The team w/ home-ice advantage would go on the road for Game 1 before hosting Game 2 and (if necessary) Game 3
    • Example: If LV holds the home-ice advantage, the series breakdown would be:
      • Game 1 @ SPR
      • Game 2 @ LV
      • Game 3 (if necessary) @ LV
  • If Springfield faces Charlotte:
    • The team with the higher regular season point total (or holds the tiebreaker) receives home-ice advantage
    • The team w/ home-ice advantage would host all games in the series
    • Example: if SPR has home ice, Games 1, 2, and 3 (if necessary) would all take place at the MassMutual Center.

We will update this article as the week progresses to break out the potential matchup situations!

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